Géopolitique de l’Ethiopie. Centre de gravité de la Corne de l’Afrique

Ethiopia has now become one of Africa’s major economies, while also being the world’s most populous landlocked country. It has the continent’s second-largest—and very young—population. The following are the key elements of the geopolitical equation it faces.

Through both its demographic dynamism and its economic growth, Ethiopia is emerging as a powerful regional player whose influence extends across neighbouring countries. To paraphrase a famous saying, one might say that when Ethiopia sneezes, the Horn of Africa catches a cold. A region of major strategic importance because of its position along one of the world’s busiest maritime routes—the Red Sea—the Horn of Africa is also an area of intense political and seismic activity, where foreign powers (Turkey, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, China, the United States, the European Union, Russia, and others) manoeuvre behind the scenes, operating through fragile or closed-off states (Eritrea, Somalia, Somaliland, Sudan, and South Sudan). The stability of the region as a whole can only be ensured with Ethiopia’s participation.

Although sparsely populated, economically less active (with the exception of Djibouti), and generally poor, these states nevertheless control Ethiopia’s access to the sea, on which the country partly depends. Alliances and forms of cooperation are forged and dissolved in response to shifting needs, rivalries, and external interference.

To provide a better understanding of the challenges facing this country, which could have the world’s seventh-largest population after 2050 (United Nations, World Population Prospects 2024 Revision), this book successively examines Ethiopia’s territory and how it is used; the principles underlying the formation of the Ethiopian state and nation; and the country’s relations with the outside world, through international relations and regional issues. It also addresses the demographic, geopolitical, and economic challenges Ethiopia will have to overcome, the extent of its success in meeting them determining whether or not the country will survive.